Is There an El Niño or La Niña Right Now?
The official index NOAA uses to declare El Niño and La Niña, its current strength, and how fast it is moving.
NOAA declares El Niño at +0.50 °C. This reading is strong El Niño.
The last two years
Each bar is one overlapping three-month season, oldest first.
- NDJ 2025-0.60
- DJF 2026-0.39
- JFM 2026-0.21
- FMA 2026+0.11
- MAM 2026+0.46
- AMJ 2026+0.95
- MJJ 2026+1.39
- JJA 2026+1.80
Is it officially an episode yet?
Not yet — and this is the part the headlines skip. El Niño conditions are present: the index has been past +0.50 °C for 3 overlapping seasons. NOAA records a full episode only once 5 consecutive seasons have done so, which leaves 2 to go. Runs have faded before reaching that mark.
3 of 5 seasons toward a recorded episode.
Is this a “super El Niño”?
Not by the usual definition. “Super El Niño” is a media term rather than NOAA terminology, generally used for an Oceanic Niño Index at or above +2.00 °C. The current index is +1.80 °C, which is 0.20 °C short of that mark.
The single month of August reached +2.52 °C, and the monthly figure leads the three-month index while an event strengthens — so the two are often quoted interchangeably when they should not be. For scale, the strongest El Niño in the record peaked at +2.59 °C in November–January 2015.
Every El Niño and La Niña since 1950
22 El Niño and 20 La Niña episodes, each a run of at least 5 overlapping seasons past ±0.50 °C. Strongest reading of the run shown.
- El NiñoMJJ 2023 → MAM 2024 · 11 seasons · strong+1.99
- La NiñaASO 2021 → DJF 2023 · 17 seasons · weak-0.91
- La NiñaASO 2020 → MAM 2021 · 8 seasons · moderate-1.11
- El NiñoSON 2019 → FMA 2020 · 6 seasons · weak+0.75
- El NiñoASO 2018 → MJJ 2019 · 10 seasons · moderate+1.05
- La NiñaOND 2017 → FMA 2018 · 5 seasons · weak-0.76
- El NiñoSON 2014 → AMJ 2016 · 20 seasons · very strong+2.59
- La NiñaJAS 2011 → JFM 2012 · 7 seasons · moderate-1.02
- La NiñaMJJ 2010 → AMJ 2011 · 12 seasons · strong-1.57
- El NiñoJJA 2009 → FMA 2010 · 9 seasons · strong+1.50
- La NiñaOND 2008 → FMA 2009 · 5 seasons · weak-0.89
- La NiñaJAS 2007 → MJJ 2008 · 11 seasons · strong-1.76
- La NiñaOND 2005 → FMA 2006 · 5 seasons · weak-0.86
- El NiñoASO 2006 → DJF 2007 · 5 seasons · weak+0.88
- El NiñoJAS 2004 → JFM 2005 · 7 seasons · weak+0.71
- El NiñoJJA 2002 → JFM 2003 · 8 seasons · moderate+1.19
- La NiñaSON 2000 → JFM 2001 · 5 seasons · weak-0.78
- La NiñaJJA 1998 → MJJ 2000 · 24 seasons · strong-1.53
- El NiñoAMJ 1997 → MAM 1998 · 12 seasons · very strong+2.37
- La NiñaJAS 1995 → FMA 1996 · 8 seasons · moderate-1.05
- El NiñoSON 1994 → JFM 1995 · 5 seasons · weak+0.97
- El NiñoMJJ 1991 → MJJ 1992 · 13 seasons · strong+1.54
- La NiñaAMJ 1988 → AMJ 1989 · 13 seasons · strong-1.85
- El NiñoASO 1986 → DJF 1988 · 17 seasons · moderate+1.49
- La NiñaSON 1984 → MJJ 1985 · 9 seasons · moderate-1.06
- El NiñoAMJ 1982 → MJJ 1983 · 14 seasons · very strong+2.14
- La NiñaSON 1983 → JFM 1984 · 5 seasons · weak-0.96
- El NiñoSON 1977 → JFM 1978 · 5 seasons · weak+0.84
- El NiñoASO 1976 → JFM 1977 · 6 seasons · weak+0.84
- La NiñaSON 1974 → FMA 1976 · 18 seasons · strong-1.58
- La NiñaAMJ 1973 → MJJ 1974 · 14 seasons · very strong-2.04
- El NiñoMJJ 1972 → FMA 1973 · 10 seasons · strong+1.84
- La NiñaJJA 1970 → DJF 1972 · 19 seasons · moderate-1.36
- El NiñoSON 1968 → AMJ 1969 · 8 seasons · weak+0.98
- El NiñoMJJ 1965 → FMA 1966 · 10 seasons · strong+1.82
- La NiñaAMJ 1964 → DJF 1965 · 9 seasons · weak-0.80
- El NiñoJJA 1963 → JFM 1964 · 8 seasons · moderate+1.19
- El NiñoMAM 1957 → AMJ 1958 · 14 seasons · strong+1.69
- La NiñaFMA 1955 → MAM 1956 · 14 seasons · strong-1.59
- El NiñoMAM 1953 → NDJ 1953 · 9 seasons · weak+0.78
- El NiñoMJJ 1951 → DJF 1952 · 8 seasons · moderate+1.03
- La NiñaDJF 1950 → DJF 1951 · 13 seasons · moderate-1.32
El Niño and La Niña are the same cycle
They are the two opposite phases of one system in the equatorial Pacific, and the same index identifies both. In El Niño the trade winds slacken, warm surface water spreads east toward South America, and the Niño 3.4 anomaly climbs past +0.50 °C. In La Niña the trades strengthen, cold water wells up along the equator, and the anomaly falls past −0.50 °C. Between the two is ENSO-neutral.
Strength is graded from the same number: 0.5–1.0 weak, 1.0–1.5 moderate, 1.5–2.0 strong, 2.0 and beyond very strong. “Super El Niño” is not one of these — it is a press term for the top band.
Neither phase forecasts the weather anywhere. They shift the odds of a wetter or drier, warmer or cooler season across large regions over months. For what that means where you are, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center publishes a monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion and seasonal outlooks; this page reports the index and its history, nothing further.
Reading these two numbers
The big figure is the Oceanic Niño Index: sea-surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific, averaged over three months, against the long-term normal. It is the number NOAA declares El Niño on, and the one “moderate” or “strong” refers to. Because it is a three-month mean published monthly, it lags real time.
The smaller figure is the single month of August on its own, against a 1981–2010 base. It moves sooner, and while an event is strengthening it runs ahead of the three-month index — which is why the two do not match and should not be quoted as if they did.
El Niño shifts seasonal odds across whole regions. It does not forecast a day or a place, and nothing on this page should be read as a local forecast. Data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.